Tag Archives: data

Our Oscar Predictions…or How To Anger the Data Geeks [Infographic]

CCNY has been working on giving you our predictions for this weekend’s Oscars.  This, we thought, would be a fun data set to put into a magic predictive statistical whatcha-ma-callit.

After looking at our results, the best we could do was give the playing field 50-52% chance of winning their category with the most likely winner receiving a slightly better, 61-68% chance of winning.

This wasn’t making our data geeks happy.  Why can’t we give better predictions?  What is it about this data set that makes it so hard to give you accurate predictions with better odds?

The Oscars are so hard to predict because the sample changes every year, not only are the nominees different but the composition of the Academy (the voters) is different as well. When we use the historical data, as well as the data from other awards, show voting bodies it makes narrowing the information down to a point where the predictions give a precise and accurate front runner almost impossible. To get the right sample, we would have to survey the members of this years’ Academy ONLY.

What does this mean for you?  This means SAMPLES and data sets are important. When you are thinking of taking a sample to make predictions, it is essential that you are asking for the right information from the right sources.

Let’s see how well we do with our predictions for this year for the top acting categories, knowing full well that the data geeks are mad they can’t give you better numbers.

Summer Fairs: How Many Will Attend? Let the Data Guide You

With the end of summer here, it only means one thing – fairs!  From the rides, animals, concerts, and of course the food, tens of thousands of people experience the fun of county and state fairs each year.  This means countless hours planning the multi-day events to ensure the necessary resources are present to meet the demand of the people.  But just how much parking/food/hand sanitizer is needed?  Directors and managers use historical attendance records to predict the attendance for future fairs.  Voted as one of the best in the country, The Great New York State Fair sees record-breaking attendance year after year.  New attractions consistently help to draw people.  However, attendance can also vary based on weather, including both temperature and precipitation.  The Dane County, WI Fair looked at just how temperature and rain affect fair attendance.  Analyzing various factors such as temperature, precipitation, new attractions, and new foods can help fair directors and managers better plan and prepare for upcoming fairs.
Eval Long Post - 2015 07 29 picThe Research and Evaluation Department at CCNY, Inc. specializes in health and human services industries using historical data to understand the present and predict the future.  Additionally, for a comprehensive data analysis and report, quantitative and qualitative data can be broken into subgroups to determine if a difference exists between groups.  Covariates and potential confounders are also frequently analyzed to help organizations make the most informed decisions for continuous quality improvement.  Contact us today to learn more about how we can help turn your data into an actionable future.

Data Consumers: Where On the Spectrum Should Your Product Be

The most challenging step in creating a data product is knowing what is needed. Defining the characteristics, the complexity, and the audience is a very important step. Sometimes customers don’t know the horizon of options available to them. While reading “Data Fluency” by Zach and Chris Gemignai, I found an excellent spectrum of dimensions that can help a data consumer understand the complexity of their needs.

characteristics of data products

From “Data Fluency” pg. 50

I geeked out about this. I want to make a slider where the user could move it back and forth on these dimensions and get examples of what they would get. I’m putting that on my Someday/Maybe list.

If you’re struggling to define what data you need, or how you need to view it, contact us. We love this stuff.